Projection – Cheering The Logo

By Bob Trask – Just a quick update during the holiday season, before we put a cross on 2022!

With over 40% of the season completed and a New Year just around the corner, the projected production of each player over a full season provides us with a glimpse of what kind of offensive talent the team has on its hands. These projections are based on production achieved so far this season and a very rough estimate on the number of games each player will suit up for for the duration of the year. These aren’t predictions but just simple mathematical projections that can change dramatically if a players has a hot streak or suddenly goes cold – or is traded.

Forwards

PLAYER	GP	G	A	PTS
Nick Suzuki	82	34	36	70
Cole Caufield	82	43	21	64
Kirby Dach	82	11	39	50
Sean Monahan	64	15	28	43
Christian Dvorak	82	16	18	34
Josh Anderson	79	21	7	28
Mike Hoffman	66	18	10	28
Juraj Slafkovsky	74	10	14	24
Brendan Gallagher	61	8	13	21
Evgenii Dadonov	71	5	15	20
Jonathan Drouin	56	0	17	17
Jake Evans	82	2	14	16
Michael Pezzetta	54	6	3	9
Joel Armia	64	0	8	8

Defenseman

PLAYER	GP	G	A	PTS
Kaiden Guhle	82	5	27	32
Arber Xhekaj	79	12	16	28
Jordan Harris	75	2	24	26
Mike Matheson	39	4	20	24
David Savard	62	3	18	21
Joel Edmundson	66	3	10	13
Jonathan Kovacevic	77	2	9	11
Chris Wideman	59	0	11	11

All projections are presented without comment. Draw your own conclusions.

More readings…

Lafrenière A Healthy Scratch – Habs’ Curious by JD Lagrange
Projected Performance by Bob Trask
Expectations on Offense: A Comparative by Bob Trask

By Bob Trask – With the season at the one-third mark for the Canadiens we can take a look at projected performances for the various players and you can see how they match up against your pre-season expectations. Games played are my own “guesstimates” and production estimates are extrapolated from that

NAME	GP	G	A	PTS
Nick Suzuki	82	42	45	87
Cole Caufield	82	48	36	84
Kirby Dach	82	12	45	57
Sean Monahan	73	18	32	50
Mike Matheson	63	7	35	42
Christian Dvorak	82	15	21	36
Mike Hoffman	70	24	12	36
Kaiden Guhle	82	3	30	33
Josh Anderson	75	21	6	28
Juraj Slafkovsky	72	13	13	26
Brendan Gallagher	70	10	16	26
Arber Xhekaj	75	12	12	24
Jordan Harris	69	3	18	21
David Savard	72	3	18	21
Evgenii Dadonov	60	5	8	13
Jonathan Drouin	51	0	13	13
Jonathan Kovacevic	70	3	9	12
Joel Edmundson	68	4	8	12
Jake Evans	72	0	11	11
Chris Wideman	40	0	11	11
Joel Armia	64	0	8	8
Rem Pitlick	44	4	0	4
Michael Pezzetta	42	3	0	3

One of the strengths of the Montreal Canadiens was supposed to be the balance in its lineup from top to bottom. They were supposed to have a 4th line, for instance, that other teams would ignore at the peril. Unfortunately, it hasn’t turned out that way and based on production to date. The bottom 5 scoring forwards are projected to score a combined 7 goals goals this year or an average of about 1.4 goals per player.

As the Canadiens look to improve next season, the obvious lack of a scoring threat from the 4th line and spare players will be one shortcoming that Kent Hughes and company will be looking to address. There are other disappointments on offense as well with Brendan Gallagher and Evgenii Dadonov falling far short of expectations but not all of the problems can be addressed at one time, mainly due to contracts that may prove to be unmovable.

Strengthening the bottom of the lineup is absolutely critical if the Canadiens hope to challenge for a playoff spot next year. In the meantime, we can watch and wait over the next couple of months or so to see which names remain on the list and which disappear.

More reading…