Tag: Projection

By Bob Trask – As fans await the start of a new NHL season and glance at the lineups of our favourite teams with all the additions to and subtractions from the roster over the course of the year, we often like to project the players on our team will do. But there is only so much ice time to go around and how much will be available to each player will impact their offensive performance.

Ice time and games played

A look at the statistics on NHL.com provides some insight on how on many games played and how much ice time the average positional player received during the year. These won’t be 100% accurate but it serves to illustrate how the ice-time pie was divided up – on average.

The reason for listing 14 forwards and 7 defensemen is because that is how a typical NHL roster is constructed.

POSITION	GAMES PLAYED	TOTAL MINUTES	MINUTES PER GAME
1F	82	1553	20:30
2F	81	1443	19:10
3F	79	1360	18:20
4F	78	1290	17:50
5F	76	1228	17:00
6F	74	1143	16:20
7F	71	1082	15:40
8F	69	1005	15:00
9F	66	920	14:20
10F	62	831	13:50
11F	57	735	13:20
12F	50	659	12:50
13F	41	505	12:20
14F	32	368	11:50
1D	81	1885	24:40
2D	78	1690	22:15
3D	75	1504	21:00
4D	70	1317	19:35
5D	63	1173	18:20
6D	52	865	17:10
7D	38	564	16:10

Canadiens Projections

When we look at the Canadiens roster as it stands today it remains very unclear how the ice time will be divided. For the sake of this article the following ice times are assumed and points are projected from that.

PLAYER	TOTAL MINUTES	MINUTES PER GAME	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS
FORWARDS
Nick Suzuki	1550	20:30	20	38	58
Cole Caufield	1440	19:00	31	24	55
Christian Dvorak	1360	18:30	18	23	41
Evegeni Dadonov	1290	18:00	25	29	54
Jonathan Drouin	1230	17:00	13	31	44
Kirby Dach	1140	16:30	9	18	27
Josh Anderson	1080	16:00	18	12	30
Juraj Slafkovsky	1000	15:00	n/a	n/a	n/a
Jake Evans	920	14:30	9	14	23
Brendan Gallagher	830	14:00	16	15	31
Rem Pitlick	740	13:30	10	16	26
Joel Armia	660	13:00	6	6	12
Michael Pezzetta	500	12:30	6	8	14
Jesse Ylonen	370	12:00	4	0	0
DEFENSE
Joel Edmundson	1890	24:30	6	16	22
Mike Matheson	1690	22:30	10	18	28
David Savard	1500	21:00	5	15	20
Chris Wideman	1330	19:30	8	20	28
Jordan Harris	1170	18:30	7	0	7
Justin Barron	870	17:00	7	7	14
Otto Leskinen	570	16:00	0	0	0
TOTALS*			191	310	501

*Any production from Slafkovsky is not included in the totals

These projections are based on career scoring totals per minutes played. The number of minutes played will likely be radically different from the assumptions made here so keep in mind these are only the very broadest of guidelines.

Take these numbers with a huge grain of salt!! And here’s why.

Players like Caufield, Dach, Pitlick, Harris, Barron and others have limited NHL experience and projecting from such a small base of games will be wildly inaccurate. Slafkovsky hasn’t played at all. The younger players from Suzuki on down all have the potential to improve.

As players accumulate more minutes the projections on scoring per minute of play should be more accurate. Gallagher would be a good example. Older players are more likely to regress or hold their own. The factor that might lead to the biggest discrepancy from these projections for this group is that amount of ice time they could receive in the year.

Improve, Decline and Unknown

Players who might be expected to improve from their lifetime averages include Suzuki, Caufield and Dach. Jonathan Drouin is also a special case who I believe has a chance to improve on his career numbers.

Dvorak, Dadonov, Anderson, Matheson, Edmundson, Savard and Wideman have all played enough games that we know more or less what to expect.

The bulk of this roster is filled with unknowns. It starts with Slafkovsky and includes Evans, Pitlick, Pezzetta and Ylönen at the forward position. On defense the unknowns among this group are Barron, Harris and Leskinen. Estimating their production is a shot in the dark and will probably no where close to hitting the mark.

The big potential for decline is Brendan Gallagher. It remains to be seen how he will be utilized and how he will adapt to a system that doesn’t play to his strengths. Armia also falls into the potential for decline category and if I had included Mike Hoffman on this hypothetical roster he would be in that group as well.

Looking Forward

Another factor that could impact the offensive output of the Canadiens is the style of game the team adopts under Martin St. Louis. For years the Canadiens have focused on shutdown defense and played with little imagination. Dominique Ducharme, Claude Julien, Michel Therrien, Jacques Martin, Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau brought 20 years of the dead puck era to Montreal.

Compared to that group, St-Louis is a breath of fresh air and could unlock the talent and creativity of the team. Based on that and the fact that a large number of players should be approaching their prime, the Canadiens could have a highly more productive offense than last year.

A question that always arises is whether young players like Harris and Barron are best served playing limited minutes in the NHL or substantial minutes in the AHL. In both their cases it could be a combination of both if they are shuttled back and forth between Montreal and Laval.

Of course additional player changes are expected before the season begins and that will change a lot of these projections. Mike Hoffman, as mentioned many times, seems to be a prime candidate to be moved while Joel Armia’s projected ice time and production doesn’t merit his contract.

On a positive note, virtually every player on this list has the potential to exceed the totals posted here – some by a wide margin.

Stay tuned.

More reading…

• The Mismanagement of Jonathan Drouin by Bob Trask
• A Tale of Two Teams by Bob Trask
• Habs – Year over Year Comparison by Bob Trask