By Bob Trask – After a difficult season Montreal Canadiens fans could use a dose of optimism – so here it is.
Last year the Canadiens ranked 27th in the league in terms of goals scored with 221. Florida led the league with 340 goals, Washington rounded out the top ten with 275 goals and the league median was 253.
With a fresh approach from Martin St-Louis, some new additions to the team and minor rebounds by some of the veterans, what can we expect from this year’s edition of the Habs? We can take a look by applying some realistic production numbers to each player.
All of these totals are in line with historical production numbers for veterans and with modest improvements and/or contributions from the younger players on the team. It also considers the amount of ice time that maybe available to each player.
By the Numbers
NAME
G
A
PTS
Nick Suzuki
24
46
70
Cole Caufield
34
26
60
Evgeny Dadonov
26
30
56
Jonathan Drouin
15
35
50
Christian Dvorak
21
27
48
Kirby Dach
15
29
44
Josh Anderson
21
15
36
Brendan Gallagher
18
17
35
Juraj Slafkovsky
16
18
34
Rem Pitlick
12
19
31
Mike Matheson
10
18
28
Chris Wideman
7
18
25
Jake Evans
10
15
25
Joel Edmundson
6
15
21
David Savard
4
15
21
Joel Armia
9
9
18
Justin Barron
3
9
12
Michael Pezzetta
5
6
11
Jesse Ylonen
5
5
10
Jordan Harris
1
4
5
Corey Schueneman
2
4
6
All Others
8
12
20
Total
272
393
665
All of this adds up to potential for significant improvement for offensive production. These totals put the Canadiens within a whisker of being in the top ten teams when it comes to scoring. And none of the targets for the players are wildly unrealistic.
Under St-Louis, the Canadiens scored at a pace of 263 goals over an 82 game schedule reinforcing the idea that 272 goals is not a stretch – particularly if the power play can come to life.
While it is unlikely all players on the list will be with the Canadiens when the puck drops, it provides some context on which we can individually base our expectations. If nothing else the team has the potential to be far more exciting than what we saw in the first half of last season.
By Bob Trask – As fans await the start of a new NHL season and glance at the lineups of our favourite teams with all the additions to and subtractions from the roster over the course of the year, we often like to project the players on our team will do. But there is only so much ice time to go around and how much will be available to each player will impact their offensive performance.
Ice time and games played
A look at the statistics on NHL.com provides some insight on how on many games played and how much ice time the average positional player received during the year. These won’t be 100% accurate but it serves to illustrate how the ice-time pie was divided up – on average.
The reason for listing 14 forwards and 7 defensemen is because that is how a typical NHL roster is constructed.
POSITION
GAMES PLAYED
TOTAL MINUTES
MINUTES PER GAME
1F
82
1553
20:30
2F
81
1443
19:10
3F
79
1360
18:20
4F
78
1290
17:50
5F
76
1228
17:00
6F
74
1143
16:20
7F
71
1082
15:40
8F
69
1005
15:00
9F
66
920
14:20
10F
62
831
13:50
11F
57
735
13:20
12F
50
659
12:50
13F
41
505
12:20
14F
32
368
11:50
1D
81
1885
24:40
2D
78
1690
22:15
3D
75
1504
21:00
4D
70
1317
19:35
5D
63
1173
18:20
6D
52
865
17:10
7D
38
564
16:10
O
Canadiens Projections
When we look at the Canadiens roster as it stands today it remains very unclear how the ice time will be divided. For the sake of this article the following ice times are assumed and points are projected from that.
PLAYER
TOTAL MINUTES
MINUTES PER GAME
GOALS
ASSISTS
POINTS
FORWARDS
Nick Suzuki
1550
20:30
20
38
58
Cole Caufield
1440
19:00
31
24
55
Christian Dvorak
1360
18:30
18
23
41
Evegeni Dadonov
1290
18:00
25
29
54
Jonathan Drouin
1230
17:00
13
31
44
Kirby Dach
1140
16:30
9
18
27
Josh Anderson
1080
16:00
18
12
30
Juraj Slafkovsky
1000
15:00
n/a
n/a
n/a
Jake Evans
920
14:30
9
14
23
Brendan Gallagher
830
14:00
16
15
31
Rem Pitlick
740
13:30
10
16
26
Joel Armia
660
13:00
6
6
12
Michael Pezzetta
500
12:30
6
8
14
Jesse Ylonen
370
12:00
4
0
0
DEFENSE
Joel Edmundson
1890
24:30
6
16
22
Mike Matheson
1690
22:30
10
18
28
David Savard
1500
21:00
5
15
20
Chris Wideman
1330
19:30
8
20
28
Jordan Harris
1170
18:30
7
0
7
Justin Barron
870
17:00
7
7
14
Otto Leskinen
570
16:00
0
0
0
TOTALS*
191
310
501
*Any production from Slafkovsky is not included in the totals
These projections are based on career scoring totals per minutes played. The number of minutes played will likely be radically different from the assumptions made here so keep in mind these are only the very broadest of guidelines.
Take these numbers with a huge grain of salt!! And here’s why.
Players like Caufield, Dach, Pitlick, Harris, Barron and others have limited NHL experience and projecting from such a small base of games will be wildly inaccurate. Slafkovsky hasn’t played at all. The younger players from Suzuki on down all have the potential to improve.
As players accumulate more minutes the projections on scoring per minute of play should be more accurate. Gallagher would be a good example. Older players are more likely to regress or hold their own. The factor that might lead to the biggest discrepancy from these projections for this group is that amount of ice time they could receive in the year.
Improve, Decline and Unknown
Players who might be expected to improve from their lifetime averages include Suzuki, Caufield and Dach. Jonathan Drouin is also a special case who I believe has a chance to improve on his career numbers.
Brendan Gallagher
Dvorak, Dadonov, Anderson, Matheson, Edmundson, Savard and Wideman have all played enough games that we know more or less what to expect.
The bulk of this roster is filled with unknowns. It starts with Slafkovsky and includes Evans, Pitlick, Pezzetta and Ylönen at the forward position. On defense the unknowns among this group are Barron, Harris and Leskinen. Estimating their production is a shot in the dark and will probably no where close to hitting the mark.
The big potential for decline is Brendan Gallagher. It remains to be seen how he will be utilized and how he will adapt to a system that doesn’t play to his strengths. Armia also falls into the potential for decline category and if I had included Mike Hoffman on this hypothetical roster he would be in that group as well.
Looking Forward
Another factor that could impact the offensive output of the Canadiens is the style of game the team adopts under Martin St. Louis. For years the Canadiens have focused on shutdown defense and played with little imagination. Dominique Ducharme, Claude Julien, Michel Therrien, Jacques Martin, Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau brought 20 years of the dead puck era to Montreal.
Compared to that group, St-Louis is a breath of fresh air and could unlock the talent and creativity of the team. Based on that and the fact that a large number of players should be approaching their prime, the Canadiens could have a highly more productive offense than last year.
A question that always arises is whether young players like Harris and Barron are best served playing limited minutes in the NHL or substantial minutes in the AHL. In both their cases it could be a combination of both if they are shuttled back and forth between Montreal and Laval.
Of course additional player changes are expected before the season begins and that will change a lot of these projections. Mike Hoffman, as mentioned many times, seems to be a prime candidate to be moved while Joel Armia’s projected ice time and production doesn’t merit his contract.
On a positive note, virtually every player on this list has the potential to exceed the totals posted here – some by a wide margin.
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