Teams Needing Goaltending Help

By JD Lagrange – While the NHL’s annual Holiday Roster Freeze has been in effect since Tuesday night and runs through 12:01 a.m. local on Dec. 28th, it hasn’t stopped the rumour mill from going crazy. And as several teams are not happy with their current goaltending situation, Canadiens’ GM Kent Hughes is waiting in the weeds to pounce, hoping to land a substantial return for one of his three goaltenders.

Jake Allen, Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau have played pretty well, particularly as of late, and it is expected that the ménage-à-trois won’t last far beyond the lift of the trade freeze, at least if we listen to NHL insiders.

If the Habs are going to trade one of the three goaltenders that they have, they will have to try to address a need for one of two things:

  • a young scoring forward; or
  • a young, NHL-ready goaltender.

As those teams will be looking at goaltenders, the odds might be better for the Canadiens to get some talent up front instead in this trade.

Teams in need

There are several teams in need of some sort of improvement in net, and some of them are more desperate than others. I have singled out eight teams which seems to be looking for an upgrade in front of the net.

Please note that in no way am I assuming that any of the names I will be putting down are or could be available. But know that the Canadiens also have other assets that they can throw in for a bigger trade. Also, they have cap space available (due to LTIR) to take on money in return, therefore getting a better return in a trade.

So without further ado, let’s look at those teams and some of the names that the Canadiens might find interesting.

Edmonton Oilers

  • Xavier Bourgault (21) Center, 22nd OA in 2021

The Oilers and Canadiens, at first view, don’t seem to be very good trade partners, even if Edmonton will be getting help for Stuart Skinner in goal. Bourgault is not having a great season in the AHL and it might be time for him to get a fresh start elsewhere. At 21 years of age, he is still young and might benefit from a true opportunity.

Carolina Hurricanes

  • Bradly Nadeau (18) W/C, 30th OA in 2023
  • Noel Gunler (22) RW, 41st OA in 2020
  • Ville Koivunen (20) W/C, 51st OA in 2021
  • Vasili Ponomaryov (21) C, 53rd AO in 2020
  • Felix Unger Sörum (18) RW, 62nd OA in 2023

The Hurricanes are loaded with good young forward prospects and much like Edmonton (and Toronto), their goaltending has been letting them down so far this season. They could be tempted to sacrifice one of them for some immediate help.

St. Louis Blues

  • Zachary Bolduc (20) C, 17th OA in 2021
  • Dalibor Dvorský (18) C/RW, 10th OA in 2023
  • Jimmy Snuggerud (19) RW, 23rd OA in 2023
  • Jake Neighbours (21) LW, 26th in 2020

The Blues have Jordan Binnington but he’s not having a great season (to his standard). They know Jake Allen very well so keep an eye on them for sure, as mentioned by Pierre LeBrun.

Minnesota Wild

  • Danila Yurov (20) RW/C, 24th OA in 2022
  • Vladislav Firstov (22) LW, 42nd OA in 2019
  • Jesper Wallstedt (21) G, 20th OA in 2021

Yes, I did put a young goalie in there and it’s likely a long shot. But the two Russians could be quite interesting for the Habs. At 39, Marc-Andre Fleury can still play but he needs help and Gustavsson is not having a good season.

New Jersey Devils

  • Alexander Holtz (21) RW, 7th OA in 2020
  • Dawson Mercer (22) C, 18th OA in 2020
  • Lenni Hämeenaho (19) F, 58th OA in 2023

New Jersey is an interesting option and as mentioned by my colleague Bob Trask, they do have some interesting prospects or young players to offer.

Calgary Flames

  • Matt Coronato (21) RW/LW, 13th OA in 2021

The Flames have been wasting picks and prospects in recent years and the cupboard is starting to get rather thin. Coronato is an interesting prospect but there might be better offers from other teams.

Detroit Red Wings

  • Jonatan Berggren (23) RW, 33rd OA in 2018
  • Klim Kostin (24) C/W, 31st OA in 2017

David Pagnotta (amongst others) from The Fourth Period had the Canadiens and Berggren linked in rumours not too long ago and considering their struggles in net and the fact that Berggren is not happy in Detroit, it’s definitely a possibility. If I’m Hughes, I also try to get my hands on former Oilers’ rugged winger Klim Kostin as well. He would be great on the 4th line.

Toronto Maple Leafs

I personally find very unlikely to see the Canadiens helping out their arch rivals address their goaltending needs, although they did trade Tomas Plekanec to them a few years ago. So I did not look very deeply into their system to figure out a possible target.

Conclusion

I won’t sit here and blow smoke up “you know where”, pretending to be in the know about the potential targets. What I have done is some research on players that appear to be some Kent Hughes type of trades, based on the Justin Barron, Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook trades. Young players with high potential who have yet to reach that potential.

There are likely more potential targets and those who follow prospects will have their say for sure. So don’t take this to the bank quite yet. But at least, the exercise makes us think of some possibilities. Either way, here’s hoping that the three goalies situation is being resolved in Montreal by the New Year at the latest.

Habs Goalies: What Stats Don’t Say

By JD Lagrange – Very few fans and even members of the media know and understand goaltenders. Yet, everyone can make an opinion by watching a game or… relying on statistics. Too often, they look at stats and make a judgment and comparisons between goaltenders. Yes, statistics can give a bit of a general idea, but they certainly don’t tell the whole story.

Where it becomes wrong is when they use stats to decide whom should be traded, in a ménage-à-trois like we’re seeing in Montreal since the start of the season. But it’s hard to blame those fans as they don’t necessarily know better. In fact, General Managers in the NHL often hire goalie experts to help them scout and understand goaltenders because it’s such a unique position. I have played the position for about 25 years or so and I don’t know everything about it. So to think that the average fan could know would be unfair.

Stats

So in a nutshell, here’s why so many people want the Canadiens to trade Jake Allen and keep Samuel Montembeault: stats.

ALLENMONTEMBEAULTPRIMEAU
GP994
RECORD3-5-14-3-12-2-0
SA310273137
SA/GP34.430.334.3
Svs280248123
Sv%.903.908.898
GAA3.592.813.41

So if if fans and media build their case on this, one can understand where they’re coming from, right? And that’s not counting the fact that Montembeault speaks the language of the place, which earns him more love from some media members and fans alike.

Beyond stats

Now I’m going to attempt to show you why goalies cannot be THE deciding factor when wanting to judge the efficiency of a goaltender. I will do this by breaking this down a bit.

As mentioned in an earlier tweet posted at the beginning of this article, the “goals saved above expected” doesn’t take into consideration a goaltender’s rebound control and positioning. A goalie who is in good position and who smothers and controls his rebounds will often have worse numbers in that category. Those who aren’t as good will give up second scoring chances, and will make saves look more spectacular because of their poor positioning and rebounds allowed.

Then, you have to look at quality of opposition. Here are the teams the Canadiens three goaltenders have faced so far, as well as their record:

GOALIETEAMRECORDPTS %
ALLENTOR10-6-3
WSH10-5-2
BUF9-10-2
WPG12-5-2
ARI9-9-2
TBL10-6-5
VAN14-7-1
BOS14-3-3
LAK13-3-3
(4 home)101-54-23.632 Pts%
MONTEMBEAULTCHI6-12-0
MIN5-9-4
CBJ6-11-4
VGK14-5-2
STL10-8-1
TBL10-6-5
BOS14-3-3
CGY8-10-3
ANA9-11-1
(6 home)81-75-22.517 Pts%
PRIMEAUNJD9-9-1
DET10-6-3
VGK14-5-2
SJS4-15-2
(2 home)37-35-7.513 Pts%

Allen face one single team with a record below .500 in his nine games. Montembeault has played five. Three of the four teams Primeau has faced play for .500 or better. In fact, if you take San Jose out, the other three teams’ points percentage sits at .610 so one could easily make a point that he’s faced tougher opposition, although in a more limited role, granted.

Looking at this, anyone can see that Jake Allen has been given the tougher opposition. Samuel Montembeault’s starts have been hand picked, with most of them at home where his coach has the last change for lines matchups. And we see that they have really tested young Primeau with his starts, with the exception of the game in San Jose.

So folks, please understand that I’m not putting Montembeault down here. I’m simply attempting to show you that what I’m saying is not based on hater, but real life experience and situation. Stop putting him on a pedestal. He’s 27 years old and has yet to prove anything at the NHL level. I was hoping that he would step up this year (I genuinely was) but the fact of the matter is that he hasn’t.

Looking at the matchups, perhaps the Habs are hoping to see him get good numbers. Could it be to up his value in a possible trade, in order to keep Allen as Primeau’s mentor? That is my hope but I know that many don’t see it this way. I’m just hoping that management doesn’t fall in the “stats trap”…