A Different Slant: Skillset

By Bob Trask – With the upcoming NHL season still more than two months away, summers are spent dissecting the lineup and examining all the pieces in detail while trying to guess how the potential lineup compares with last season and with other teams in the league.

One way to do it is position by position. Who replaces Jeff Petry, for example? At the moment, Justin Barron appears to be the only right shot defenseman in contention. Another (or others) may be acquired before the season begins but for now he is the prime candidate. Those are big shoes to fill for a rookie

Another way to compare the lineups is by skillset.

Skillset Comparison – Defense

Rather than compare Barron to Petry, a more valid comparison may be to compare Matheson to Petry.

PLAYERGPGAPTS
Jeff Petry6862127
Mike Matheson74112031

In achieving those totals Petry played more than double the minutes on the power play as Matheson did. As an aside, both Petry and Matheson have been criticized for their defensive lapses. This only makes the comparison more valid.

Since Petry versus Matheson involves a left defenseman replacing a right defenseman, taking a look at the reverse situation would balance the left/right comparison. In this case the assumption is that Justin Barron would replace Alex Romanov. Yes, they play two completely different styles of game but Barron has the potential to be equally effective as Romanov on defense with a lot more offensive upside. And to be fair, Romanov’s defensive play was not always flawless. It was physical, yes, but not flawless.

PLAYERGPGAPTSPTS/GP
Alex Romanov (last season)79310130.16
Justin Barron (NHL career)71120.29

It’s not a stretch to think Barron could equal or exceed Romanov’s output on offense and as mentioned, Romy’s defensive game was not with its inconsistencies.

Cole Caufield and Justin Barron

This exercise in skillset comparison on defense can be continued with Edmundson vs Chiarot and Schueneman vs Kulak. In both cases, any potential dropoff would be minimal and there may even be an overall improvement. With Savard and Wideman being returnees, there is no need for a comparison for either of these players.

Using a skillset comparison, the defense looks no worse than last year with the potential to be better. The ace in the hole on defense is the organizational depth. Jordan Harris, Kaiden Guhle, Otto Leskinen, Mattias Norlinder and maybe even Arber Xhekaj or Gianni Fairbrother are a superior group to Kale Clague and Sami Niku.

If one legitimate NHL defenseman emerges from this group or is acquired via trade, waivers or free agency the Montreal defense corps should be miles ahead of last year.

Skillset Comparison – Forwards

At center we can compare Kirby Dach to Ryan Poehling while on the wings the comparison could be Dadonov versus Toffoli, Slafkovsksy versus Hoffman and Pitlick versus Lehkonen.

PLAYERGPGAPTS
Ryan Poehling579817
Kirby Dach7091726

Both players have had to overcome injuries and curiously enough, both have had to over come wrist injuries. Poehling may have also suffered a couple of concussions since he turned pro. Dach achieved his numbers while being almost exactly two years younger than Poehling. Both are big-bodied centers.

The first skillset comparison between wingers is Mike Hoffman versus Juraj Slafkovsky (if Hoffman was to be traded).

PLAYERGPGAPTS
Mike Hoffman67152035

If Slafkovsky makes the team and is considered to be a replacement for Hoffman those are the numbers he has to shoot at. Over an 82 game schedule that would translate into 18 goals and 24 assists. Those are not unrealistic targets for the first overall pick. While Hoffman’s strength is his shot, Slaflovsky projects to be a more of a multi-dimensional player.

A second skillset comparison between wingers is Tyler Toffoli versus Evgeni Dadonov.

PLAYERGPGAPTS
Tyler Toffoli70202949
Evgeni Dadonov78202343

Toffoli’s production includes his stint in Calgary and both players had about the same amount of power play time, while both players saw significant time on the off-wing. Their offensive skills seem to be similar making this one appear like a saw-off… but Dadonov may actually be more suited to a Matin St-Louis style of game than Toffoli. In the meantime, his presence allows prospects one more year to develop in the minors or amateur ranks. That gives Kent Hughes a little more time so that he can be afford to be patient and wait for the right opportunity to make any moves.

The last skillset comparison is between Artturi Lehkonen and Rem Pitlick. This one is less than perfect because Lehkonen was very accomplished defensively while that aspect of the game has hardly been Pitlick’s strength.

PLAYERGPGAPTS
Artturi Lehkonen58131629
Rem Pitlick4691726

Extrapolating their respective production with the Canadiens, Lehkonen would have had 18 goals and 24 assists for 42 points; Pitlick would have had 16 goals and 30 assists for 46 points. There isn’t much to pick and choose offensively. Both bring similar size and skillsets to the game but Pitlick needs to work on defensive awareness. If he can improve that aspect of his game he becomes a passable replacement for Lehkonen in the lineup.

With most of the other forwards from last year still listed on the roster, there is no need for comparison. What can be said, however, that an improvement among younger players and a rebound among veterans to their previous levels of play should be considered as a possibility.

The Big Picture

There is more than one way to look at a team’s lineup. By using a skillset comparison rather than a rigid position by position comparison a slightly different perspective can be developed.

Measuring the progress to date, the Canadiens have become bigger, faster, younger and maybe more skilled. The picture will continue to change as Hughes fine tunes his projected lineup with trades and/or free agent signings. And while we wait for the roster to be finalized, there are some green shoots of optimism that will hopefully blossom into future success.

More reading…

Hughes Flinched – Who is Matheson?

By JD Lagrange – Well there you have it. The GM who said he would not give assets or accept less than fair value for Jeff Petry just a few days ago has changed his mind. Or perhaps he feels like Mike Matheson is better than Jeff Petry to the point of adding a former first round pick in Ryan Poehling? Allow me to doubt that.

The trade

Oh I’m not saying that it’s a bad trade, don’t get me wrong. In fact, if you compare to the following four trades, Hughes did very well. But to say that he didn’t flinch by giving up assets to compensate for not taking salary back would be putting our head in the sand.

To CarolinaTo Vegas
Max Pacioretty
Dylan Coghlan
“Future considerations”
To NashvilleTo Tampa Bay
Ryan McDonaghGrant Mismash
Philippe Myers
To CarolinaTo San Jose
Brent Burns
Lane Pederson
Steven Lorentz
Eetu Makiniemi
2023 conditional 3rd round pick
To ChicagoTo Toronto
Petr Mrazek
2022 1st round pick
2022 2nd round pick

So by measure of comparison, the Canadiens are at least getting a good hockey player (and a fourth round pick) for Petry, even if they had to give Ryan Poehling to make it happen. All of that to save $1.375 million and no, I’m not counting Poehling as his spot must be replaced in the line-up, assuming he would make the team.

Who’s Matheson?

Mike Matheson is a 28 year-old, left-handed defenseman. The 6-foot 2-inches, 188 lbs left-handed defenseman has all the skills needed to be a solid two-way defenseman but has yet to develop the consistency needed to thrive at the NHL level. He is very mobile with good offensive potential. However, he drives coaches crazy at times by getting caught out of position.

Matheson carries a cap hit of $4.875 million until 2025-26. This means that the Canadiens are saving $1.375 million, but he has one more year to his contract than Petry.

As one of Kent Hughes’ former clients, he knows him well and he describes him as a five-star person, the type of man a father would want their daughter to marry! In his post-trade meeting with the press, Hughes said that he talked in length to Matheson’s teammate (and also former client) Kris Letang before pulling the trigger on the trade.

Who’s better?

A few of us had an interesting discussion about the value of Matheson as a player compared to Petry. In my mind, there is no doubt that Petry is far ahead of Matheson as an overall defenseman but why just take my word for it? I have been wrong before, ask my ex-wife.

We all agree that last season was one to forget for Petry, right? I mean up until Dominique Ducharme was fired in February, the usually savvy veteran only had one single goal and a pathetic six points total in 38 games! COVID, family in the US, disagreement with the coach, perhaps even pouting… nothing was working. Still, after Martin St-Louis took over, the American defenseman returned to form, averaging 0.70 points per game! The old Petry was back! Anyway, here are last year’s comparisons between the two players, even with Petry’s poor season…

Mike MathesonJeff Petry
74GP68
11G6
20A21
31PTS27
0.42PTS/GP0.40
97HITS140
81BkS117
18:48TOI/GP22:07
0:43PP TOI/GP1:43
0:16PK TOI/GP2:19
53.6CORSI49.6
54.4FENWICK49.2

Now let’s look at the past three seasons combined, to give a bigger picture…

Mike MathesonJeff Petry
177GP194
24G29
43A80
67PTS109
0.38PTS/GP0.56
330SHOTS410
182HITS414
174BkS256
18:30TOI/GP22:51
0:36PP TOI/GP2:09
0:32PK TOI/GP2:07

It’s nowhere close. So those who think that the Habs had to give up Ryan Poehling in order to compensate for Matheson being better (yes, some think that) will have to think again. Then add the value of a rare top-4 right-handed defenseman and you’ll realize that Hughes flinched and made it happen. I don’t blame him, he had to.

Rem Pitlick

Immediately after the trade, the Canadiens announced having reached an agreement with UFA Rem Pitlick, who they had not qualified, on a new 2 years, $2.2 million contract ($1.1M cap hit).

More reading…