The Cost Of Habs Moving Up In The Draft

By JD Lagrange – Few are talking about the possibility of the Canadiens trading the first overall pick, and rightfully so. But there are a lot of talks about the possibility of them trading the Calgary Flames’ pick (26th overall) and their own second round pick (33rd overall) in order to move up in the Draft, to select a better player.

In a recent article on Montreal Hockey Now, fellow panelist on Hockey Sans Limites Marco D’Amico came up with an ingenious way to calculate the value of each pick from the first couple of rounds of the Draft. Please read Marco’s article for the details of his calculation but for the purpose of this one, let’s just look as some potential scenarios if the Canadiens chose to trade some picks to move up, shall we? But here’s Marco’s points table as a reference:

Keep in mind that many factors affect the value of each pick, based on the GMs involved, trades within division, the urgency and the timing of the trade, the desire for certain prospects or players, etc…

Based on this board, pick #26, Calgary’s pick the Habs obtained in the Tyler Toffoli trade, is worth 30 points. Pick #33, which is the Canadiens’ own second round pick, is worth 20 points. So both picks combined are worth approximately 50 points. Looking at this chart, it means that Kent Hughes might be able to move up to around 15, 16 or 17.

Based on that, the teams that would be involved either the Vancouver Canucks (15th), the Buffalo Sabres (16th) or the Nashville Predators (17th).

The Canadiens also own another second round pick, the Edmonton Oilers’, which sits at #62. Based on the chart, that pick is worth approximately 5.75 points. So if the Canadiens were to trade picks #26, #33 and #62, it would add up to about 55-56 points. They could technically move up to #14, a pick owned by the Winnipeg Jets.

In another scenario, if the Canadiens traded Calgary’s first round pick (#26) and Edmonton’s second round pick (#62), the combined value would be of about 35-36 points. This could allow them to move up to pick #22 (ANA), #23 (STL) or #24 (MIN).

As you can see, the Canadiens also have three third round picks and three fourth round picks. So you do the math. No matter what, the value of the first two rounds is more significant and if the Canadiens want to move up, that’s where the value is to allow them to take a considerable jump ahead.

Now add to that the players they are trying to trade, guys like Jeff Petry, Mike Hoffman (or Jonathan Drouin), Christian Dvorak, Joel Armia… you can package to have a significant value here. Say you trade Petry along with picks #26 and #33, can this land you Detroit’s #8? Unlikely but the value wouldn’t be too far, one would think.

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